Q1 was soft, in line with peers across the industry who flagged exceptionally harsh winter weather in Europe and Turkey. Non-GAAP EBITDA fell 40.6% to €41.4 million on volume declines across cement, ready-mix and aggregates. Management framed the miss as €12 million versus the internal budget — fully weather-driven — with the rest reflecting maintenance phasing that reverses through the year. Full-year guidance was reiterated, and the tone on March-April demand was constructive, particularly in Belgium, France and the Nordics.
The most useful disclosure on the call was the bridge to the internal budget. Management had targeted €53 million of EBITDA for the quarter, so the actual €41 million is a €12 million miss versus plan, not the headline €28 million versus the prior year, according to management. The full €12 million is attributed to weather in Scandinavia and Turkey, where Q1 brought the harshest winter in two decades. The other €16 million year-on-year delta reflects a different maintenance phasing that should reverse over the remaining nine months. Management noted that historically, harsh-winter quarters see 65–75% of the gap recovered through the year, leaving a residual €4–5 million unrecovered against a full-year EBITDA target of €400–420 million. So it looks like a manageable gap.
March and April are doing the heavy lifting on the recovery argument. Denmark grey cement bounced +6% in March after a -10% quarter, Swedish aggregates ran +60% in March on project starts, and Belgium/France — last year’s laggards — delivered +8% domestic cement volumes and +30% exports. Belgium and France contributed 42% of group EBITDA in the quarter, just behind Nordic & Baltic at 47%. The geographic mix is doing exactly what diversification is supposed to do.
In Turkey, domestic cement was down 18%, but management’s budget already assumed a 13% domestic decline this year reflecting the wind-down of post-earthquake reconstruction, so Q1 was directionally close to plan. Exports were up 80%, and management flagged that the Turkish government has asked producers to curb exports — a constructive echo of the 2023 dynamic that supported regional pricing. The Kars divestment closed December 1, 2025, brought in €51 million and removed a weaker asset from the perimeter.
Egypt is the bright spot. Revenue +41.5%, domestic cement volumes +50%, exports +68%, all driven by the second clinker line restart. Q1 EBITDA growth of 6.4% understates the run-rate — management pointed out that running two lines doubles the Q1 maintenance load, so full-year guidance of €17–18 million remains on track. The Egyptian pound devalued 7.7% on average for the quarter and 12% in February-March, which sets up a pricing tailwind for the rest of the year.
Financial health
Cost inflation from energy and logistics is the main external headwind. According to management, at oil around $90–100, full-year incremental costs total roughly €38 million, concentrated in diesel and sea/inland logistics rather than electricity and gas, which are largely hedged. Pricing actions are in place across most regions and management said recovery had already begun in April. €38 million is about 9.5% of full-year EBITDA guidance — material, but recoverable given normal pass-through lags. Management was candid that another round of price hikes would be tough to push through given customers are already deferring projects in some markets, hoping for a faster end to the war and lower input prices.
The balance sheet remains a strength. Net cash of €303.7 million is up €160.5 million year-on-year, helped by the Kars proceeds, €19.7 million from the Gaurain fire insurance settlement, and €18.6 million from the EU Just Transition Fund, partially offset by €52.2 million of dividends. The €161 million sequential drop from year-end €465.1 million is normal Q1 working capital seasonality.
Outlook
Two strategic items are worth flagging. The Nymølle aggregates acquisition in Denmark (€120 million EV, €4 million synergies) is on track to close in early Q3 — antitrust dialogue is described as smooth, with a decision expected late June or early July. More importantly, on May 5 the Danish Energy Agency confirmed Aalborg Portland is fully eligible for ACCSION CCS subsidies, a 15-year support mechanism. Management put the potential OpEx benefit at €50–80 million per year for 15 years starting 2030–2031, subject to the pipeline and storage parts of the project landing on time (those are third-party). Group capex commitment is around €120 million net over three years from 2027.
Full-year 2026 guidance was reiterated: revenue ~€1.7 billion (+5%), EBITDA €400–420 million, net cash ~€590 million (+€125 million), capex ~€128 million. Q1 represents roughly 10% of full-year EBITDA, so 90% is still ahead. With the residual weather gap small, the Turkey decline already in the plan, energy inflation being passed through, Belgium and France reaccelerating, and Egypt ramping, the path to at least the bottom of the range looks credible.
Cementir’s first quarter was soft on the surface, but the conference call gave us enough to look through the print with reasonable confidence. Considering the confirmed guidance, we stick to our previous estimates and maintain our positive stance.
