AlphaValue Corporate Services
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Cementir Holding

Bloomberg   CEM IM
Ciments & Agrégats  /  Italie  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Egalement présent dans : Sociétés holdings
Positioned in a niche market
Potentiel 32,1 %
Cours (€) 9,82
Capi (M€) 1 563
Perf. 1S: -3,16 %
Perf. 1M: 4,25 %
Perf. 3M: 4,03 %
Perf Ytd: 2,94 %
Perf. relative/stoxx600 10j: -2,29 %
Perf. relative/stoxx600 20j: 5,34 %
EPS change27/07/2020

Fine-tuning the model prior to H1 results

Changement d’EPS2020 : € 0,45 vs 0,56-19,7 %
2021 : € 0,56 vs 0,61-8,65 %

Our EPS is negatively impacted by the lower activity level and margin assumptions. COVID-19 has had a more widespread impact since we last updated our model, resulting in this sharp degradation of the EPS.

Region-wise for 2020, we expect Denmark will continue to remain resilient but Norway may see a sharp drop in demand due to its oil-dependent economy. Egypt and China should show positive growth, while Belgium/France and Malayasia, which were the most impacted by prolonged lockdowns, should see significant top-line and margin declines this year (for Belgium/France: sales -14% and EBITDA -22% vs our previous estimates). Turkey might be affected by unfavourable FX and, hence, may see a negative EBITDA this year too. Given that the US is still undergoing partial lockdowns, we have taken a conservative stance on this region (sales -8% and EBITDA -15% vs our previous estimates). Lastly, we have reduced EBITDA for Italy, which mainly accounts for the corporate level activities, to €-3.7m, because of the one-off announced during Q1 and possible restructuring expenses.

For now, we have left the top-line growth and EBITDA margin improvement unchanged for 2021, but the lowered 2020 base has impacted the 2021 figures in absolute terms.

Changement de DCF€ 10,1 vs 11,1-9,22 %

A further decline in the top line and a reduction in the EBITDA margin have resulted in a decline of €1.03 in the DCF.

Mises à Jour