AlphaValue Corporate Services
Cette analyse a été commandée et financée par l’entreprise concernée et constitue donc un avantage non-monétaire mineur tel que défini par MIFID2

Crossject

CR
Bloomberg   ALCJ FP
Super Génériques  /  France  Web Site   |   Investors Relation
Things get moving
Objectif
Potentiel 121 %
Cours (€) 4,37
Capi (M€) 159
Dette

At year-end 2020, the group had a net debt position of €17m. The bulk of the capex has been spent (i.e. the industrial investment needed for the production of c.1.5m Zeneo devices).This includes €3.8m in capex in 2014-15, €3.2m in FY18, €4.4m in FY19 and another €6m in FY20. Looking onwards, we have considered a recurring capex (€2m) to which is added an “expansion” capex of €3m for each additional 2.5m units sold (which is probably not the way capex will be spent since these “thresholds” do not necessarily require such high levels of investment). Another important issue before first sales are booked is the amount needed to finance the clinical studies. According to management, the full development of each NTE costs c. €2-3m (including clinical studies) and is spent in the two years preceding market approval. This comes on top of the “normal” cash-burn of the company before its products are on shelves. However, Crossject will also benefit from upfront fees once partnership agreements are signed, on top of the benefit for tax credits and the remaining part of the “PIAVE” financing. At the end of the day, our view is that the group is self-financed provided it is able to sign partnerships in the short term. Otherwise, Crossject may have to resort to the financial markets or find another financial solution to raise cash (for instance, by “selling” future royalties to a financial partner). The group, which has already resorted to capital increases to finance its short-term needs (first through an equity line in place since FY16 and a €5m capital increase in March 2017), has issued a €5.3m convertible bond in March 2018 and another €2.5m in July. A €3.9m capital increase was announced on 28 November 2018, at a price of €1.16, with the new 3.4m shares listed before the year-end (28 December 2018). The conversion of convertible bonds in FY19 has reduced bond debt by c. €5m. At the end of FY19, the group issued a new convertible bond worth €5.7m. More recently, the group issued two bonds (each worth €5.24m, one of which is a convertible) in December 2020. Lastly, the group issued €7.5m worth of convertible bonds in December 2021, with a conversion price of the minimum between €3.30 and 92% of the market price while existing shareholders were granted a free subscription price (with 20 rights needed to buy one share).

Financement et liquidité
  12/21A 12/22E 12/23E 12/24E
EBITDA M€ -7,33 -10,5 -14,4 26,7
Cash flow des opérations M€ -8,33 -6,41 -9,04 18,5
Fonds propres M€ -5,48 -15,0 -27,2 -11,6
Dette brute M€ 31,2 56,0 66,0 71,0
   dont échéance moins d'un an M€ 0,64 1,00
   dont échéance entre 1 et 5 ans M€ 0,60 1,00 1,00
   dont échéance moins de 2 ans M€ 1,00
   dont échéance moins de 3 ans M€ 1,00
   dont échéance moins de 4 ans M€ 0,60
   dont échéance à plus de 5 ans M€ 30,0 55,0 65,0 70,0
 + Trésorerie brute M€ 14,7 32,2 32,0 1,25
 = Dette nette / (trésorerie) M€ 16,5 23,8 34,0 69,8
Emprunts bancaires M€ 25,0 40,0 40,0 40,0
Obligations émises M€ 5,80 1,00 1,00 1,00
Autres financements M€ 0,44 15,0 25,0 30,0
Ratio d'endettement %
Fonds propres/Actif total (%) % -29,8 -93,0 -192 -17,7
Dette nette ajustée/EBITDA(R) x -2,25 -2,26 -2,35 2,61
Dette brute ajustée/EBITDA(R) x -4,28 -5,34 -4,58 2,66
Dette brute ajustée/(Dette brute ajustée+Fonds ... % 121 136 170 120
Ebit cover x -14,5 -19,8 -25,4 33,4
CF des opérations/dette brute % -26,6 -11,4 -13,7 26,1
CF des opérations/dette nette % -50,4 -27,0 -26,6 26,6
FCF/Dette brute ajustée % -48,5 -12,9 -15,4 -50,4
(Tréso. brute + FCF + Découverts)/Dette CT x -0,78 -34,6
FCF/Dette CT x -24,0 -35,8
Credit Risk
Covenants
Changements d’analyse : 12/12/2022, Changements de prévisions : 12/12/2022.